U.S Stocks And OIL Both Up atpartnerships.vic
By ATPartnerships.vic.com.au | Posted 03 Feb 2015
So often lately the final hours of trading on Wall Street U.S. session define the last 24 hours of action around the different world Markets. Monday, February 02 was no exception as U.S. and European Stocks languished all day and then in the last hour of trading exploded upwards, producing positive gains for the day. European Stocks followed and are now in the black and regained last Friday’s losses.
OIL made its second gain in two days hitting a high over $50.00 but settling the trading day at 49.72. The absolute low for OIL was last Thursday January 29 when it tagged 43.56 and ended that day at a possible bottom with a doji pattern, giving a hint of a possible reversal.
The Euro was up against most of the major currencies, the USD, GBP, CHF, and the YEN. Yes, the ECB has started its intervention with Quantitative Easing (QE) to boost the economy and stave of deflation. The Greek debt problem and the new Prime Minister, Tsipras, is set for a nasty collision course with Germany’s Angela Merkel over restructuring, as Merkel at this moment will not talk directly to the Greeks as she believes it is impossible to raise the necessary funds as long term ailments of corruption and tax avoidance will get in the way. At the moment the Euro, the 19 country currency, is holding up rather well considering the conditions.
According to www.atpartnershipsvic.com.au China again showed poor growth numbers with a poor CPI and the Yuan duly weakened. The continuing affect of this slower growth is affecting Australia as it battles declining exports and Commodity prices. What will the Royal Bank of Australia do today when it meets to announce its Interest Rate. Consensus has a 65% chance of a rate cut by 25-bps to 2.25%. If that happens the poor Aussie will get another smack to weaken further.
The Sterling disappointed as it could not hold onto early gains from good Manufacturing data that came out. The B.O.E. meets this Thursday to announce rates but it will likely keep that on hold which is at record lows already.
Just as Stocks surged late in the US session, Gold and Silver simultaneously lost ground with Gold shaving off a quick $8.00 in one hour. Altogether though it was an uneventful day for the two commodities as things will surely heat up with so many major announcements to come during the rest of the week.
Upcoming news for Tuesday 03 February:
Australia – Trade Balance and Interest Rate Statement
Europe – Spanish Unemployment
Great Britain – Construction PMI
United States – No major releases today
Unrest Has Investors Clinging to American currency
By AT Partnerships | Posted 30 Sep 2014
It looked like the Greenback (US Dollar) might reverse during the European session but that was short lived as it regained its momentum with the US Dollar Index ended the day higher again. Continued world unrest has investors clinging to the safety of the American currency. New problems have emerged in Hong Kong where pro-democracy demonstrators were tear gassed to quell the protest against decreased democratic options. The Middle East and ISIS also continue to concern investors.
The Euro moved slightly lower against its major counterparts and is expected to remain weak for some time. Stock Indexes around the Globe showed slight weakness from yesterday’s action.
Silver is sometimes called, “The Devil’s Metal” and for good reason. Since Silver hit a high of $50.00 in 2011 it has virtually been a blood bath as of today price is $17.46, sitting on minor support and is at 2009 levels. Gold also eased down yesterday a couple of dollars to take a rest at the $1215 area. The simple explanation minus the manipulation is as follows.
- The Dollar strength reaching all time new highs against most currencies.
- The Stock Market recording new highs every single month (thanks to the Fed’s printing press)
- Official and I repeat official inflation is practically non-existent.
All this is really a Global scam as US print up to 4 trillion to quell the Markets. The US Dollar should be crushed by now with all the quantitative debasing and the commodities should be swinging from the rafters. Inflation doesn’t show up in Government reports but coffee, milk, meat, energy, are up to 5% higher. When the Fed stops all QE, the chickens will come home to roost and the Markets will be forced to stand on it’s own wobbly legs. Gold and silver will continue to weaken as long as this charade plays on but last week it was noted several large institutions have reduced their net shorts of Gold by 60,000 contracts, a small indication of setting up new positions for the future.
Another indication of impending massive changes coming is from world famous investor, billionaire, George Soros. Recently his, “Soros Fund Management” increased their “puts” (sells) on the S&P500 boosting his position to 11.3 million put options bringing the total value of that short position to 2.2 billion dollars. That is not a typo!! Soros has also increased his share value in ETF – Gold Mining sectors by buying millions of dollars of shares… In contrast, Goldman Sachs are still quoting that gold will hit $1050 within the next twelve months, so even the big boys can have a difference of opinion and investment strategies, as one goes net short the other scales into a buy position. It’s all about timing. Remember, Soros made 2 billion dollars in 1992 by shorting the British Pound, a trade still marvelled at by grizzled investors.
There is lot’s of Asian data out today headlined by China’s Manufacturing PMI which contains, employment, new orders, inventories, production. Later on in the day the Euro-zone has CPI Flash estimate, an inflation estimate which has been Mario Draghi’s nightmare these past months.
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Will Stocks Be Taking a Hit in the Near Future?
By AT Partnerships | Posted 01 Oct 2014
September trading is finished. During the last quarter, commodities have been hit really hard. Is it now time for stocks to take a hit in the coming next quarter? There are plenty of signs that investors are growing nervous about the impending approach to the ending of QE 3, the bond purchasing program, in the States, that has falsely held up the overvalued Stock Markets prices. Everyone knows a major retracement is coming but oddly enough, it will still come as a surprise to the majority. Some of the larger Markets have shown no major signs of weakness at all, i.e. – the DOW, due to great “earnings” from the likes of Dupont, Nike, American Express, Caterpillar etc. It is now the small cap markets starting to tremble showing some vulnerability with the Russell 2000 falling into a bear market back in May, the NYSE Composite and iShares Total Market are now pawing at their 50 day moving averages (above 50 m.a. = Bull, below 50 m.a. = Bear) along with high yield junk bonds suffering terribly this week. Bears have been making more progress than casually meets the eye. Can the Bulls turn this around and halt these signs of weakness or will the Bears emerge from hibernation and push all the Markets down?
Again massive strength from the US Dollar from Tuesday’s trading after weak Euro-Zone inflation data for September. The Dollar has climbed to 4 year highs against a basket of currencies and is on track for its biggest quarterly gain in 6 years.
Commodities were hit hard again. Gold had a 13 dollar drop hitting 1204.50 and then had a big rebound recovery but that was short lived as later in the trading day, price edged lower again and is sitting on 1208.00 at the moment. The Bears are still in control along with Silver breaking the 17 Dollar support resting at 16.94. US Crude (WTI) had a quick 3.41 drop settling at 91.37 as supply is greater than demand at the moment.
How important will Thursday’s ECB (European Central Bank) meeting be? Euro interest rates will be announced and then Mario Draghi will have his news conference which provide clues to monetary policies. With all the economic problems of growth in Europe, especially now in Italy, positive recovery seems a far off dream. The latest Rueters poll show most economists are unconvinced of Draghi policies as Euro-Zone lending from banks to private business will falter as the demand is just NOT there. Economists have now placed a 40% chance of the ECB buying sovereign bonds as Bank Of England and U.S. Federal Reserve have done.
Pro-democracy protests have paralysed Hong Kong where demonstrators want free elections and more independence from Beijing. China is scrambling to keep it’s citizens uninformed of this latest push for more freedoms by major censorship blockages. Hong Kong has 7.2 million citizens. This is not over by a long shot, as one gets a sense of “deja-vu ” asking, ” Will there be another Tiananmen Square massacre ? “